bitcoin core – Why does estimatesmartfee and walletcreatefundedpsbt with conf_target show a wide disparity?


Seems that when my testnet node boots up estimatesmartfee works just fine generally:

{"jsonrpc":"1.0","id":"curltest","method":"estimatesmartfee","params":(2)}

result =     {
        blocks = 2;
        feerate = "0.00147381";
   }

However when I go to build a psbt the fee as specified by conf_target seems to be way off:

{"jsonrpc":"1.0","id":"curltest","method":"walletcreatefundedpsbt","params":(({"txid":"019510d1084c15dc216e1a3e19e7910f3680c124953fb19c59e3c8892f51ca11","vout": 0,"sequence": 1}, {"txid":"019510d1084c15dc216e1a3e19e7910f3680c124953fb19c59e3c8892f51ca11","vout": 1,"sequence": 1}, {"txid":"bac790009314a66dda3f478df1401ed039e9519828d7f969c43d2c025e6ae328","vout": 1,"sequence": 1}, {"txid":"77bed34db35b4ac5ad056892deb5d11baa8f00fbb5727c9d2b5a1d9c8da2a57c","vout": 1,"sequence": 1}, {"txid":"a6a2af2adfb6782e4d8f3c8a6a5e6d84286aa6d971b474babd88806781225785","vout": 0,"sequence": 1}, {"txid":"488e99b9b2564383ed04df539a21394cafd6a2208e820b38847d864dd64fbbb2","vout": 1,"sequence": 1}, {"txid":"32665fd0077d0014b6fa4d33840dda3cdf561e94d8ca48e3c8b62e26629139b8","vout": 1,"sequence": 1}), {"tb1qltge5c988eaqy9960yvepxmlpkplnu3zly8j5z":0.92358192}, 0, {"includeWatching": true, "replaceable": true, "conf_target": 2, "subtractFeeFromOutputs": (0), "changeAddress": "tb1qltge5c988eaqy9960yvepxmlpkplnu3zly8j5z"}, true)}

I then sign and decoderawtransaction:

result =     {
        hash = 09aae88cce31c3a8145b13d2d3bc6e0661a8520faacc1c58ab82f00c841abd9e;
        locktime = 0;
        size = 1079;
        txid = 04f270bdd9dfece9a13cc3baf3c558db5395fab9eb2666847553c7dca78d681b;
        version = 2;
        vin =         (
                        {
                scriptSig =                 {
                    asm = "";
                    hex = "";
                };
                sequence = 1;
                txid = 019510d1084c15dc216e1a3e19e7910f3680c124953fb19c59e3c8892f51ca11;
                txinwitness =                 (
                    304402203104150c08f8692534190d57b61328ef83a52a0a3c529f63bb6d3028de5a5fbe02206b9abbbfedf350c53542865207a9c3def62cc386cc21717d90e7248308957abb01,
                    020e1ae766f28bef25b5d13cae1f1dd887cde3103d8a9eb6c9452e093e05001cca
                );
                vout = 0;
            },
                        {
                scriptSig =                 {
                    asm = "";
                    hex = "";
                };
                sequence = 1;
                txid = 019510d1084c15dc216e1a3e19e7910f3680c124953fb19c59e3c8892f51ca11;
                txinwitness =                 (
                    30440220234715c55ed55f4b4bb1d067210293e5cca7e5072fbdf362f3063dc7b8b8e8d0022053d22d2f65e9eeba00d705e2d4abf6d737d98f535294d8f7fb91c1beb699872201,
                    0335820a3d6416230ac2e793629d1a57b276b9bc5da0f0166bec1bdba9a5167652
                );
                vout = 1;
            },
                        {
                scriptSig =                 {
                    asm = "";
                    hex = "";
                };
                sequence = 1;
                txid = bac790009314a66dda3f478df1401ed039e9519828d7f969c43d2c025e6ae328;
                txinwitness =                 (
                    3044022036730e009f7b262ac026f36caed527bb897ade66e446d8d3c86b99f05bd7923b02203cbb170419145a00b1f93524ea05d68048fff826e2af4803f5053b4b6bd5c53d01,
                    02de2954b646d7c77cdc4444c53a564e41b28260960f1ea5282792f1a7193478cc
                );
                vout = 1;
            },
                        {
                scriptSig =                 {
                    asm = "";
                    hex = "";
                };
                sequence = 1;
                txid = 77bed34db35b4ac5ad056892deb5d11baa8f00fbb5727c9d2b5a1d9c8da2a57c;
                txinwitness =                 (
                    3044022010e1342cd515a5923768be66fdff1196d29cc81c601b1fb5aa0c27061935c7be022055f2527602d25cb64133118bab362af5666cd8f640e4929bd95c581a361154f201,
                    02fc37d19c8eaa953c00d4da134e17d9b92dacb32508afbc76c53ebf511c1aea36
                );
                vout = 1;
            },
                        {
                scriptSig =                 {
                    asm = "";
                    hex = "";
                };
                sequence = 1;
                txid = a6a2af2adfb6782e4d8f3c8a6a5e6d84286aa6d971b474babd88806781225785;
                txinwitness =                 (
                    304402207f8e055a44936178dffed0547ec58eb1b7e13308f265ec1f7fac96872f23bcb4022037d4095f7f9398fec3f9ae54e407a84d8b8b938a34df46fefac777be7891e89301,
                    02952f6dd04b2894a8aa633091f784845ebcb2749d634d161f56c3cb2d2366c45f
                );
                vout = 0;
            },
                        {
                scriptSig =                 {
                    asm = "";
                    hex = "";
                };
                sequence = 1;
                txid = 488e99b9b2564383ed04df539a21394cafd6a2208e820b38847d864dd64fbbb2;
                txinwitness =                 (
                    304402203fe34532c251e59912a83f01a7b709b43ec16cc42d926199880da0525efe06ca0220339af59da13b13a1bd420948956845500acfdc8afbc7c5ee335351acc9325ec501,
                    0254bb6f7e18fd63a5e804bc3d266edbb67af82af0e96395af680a0d2b4a60b772
                );
                vout = 1;
            },
                        {
                scriptSig =                 {
                    asm = "";
                    hex = "";
                };
                sequence = 1;
                txid = 32665fd0077d0014b6fa4d33840dda3cdf561e94d8ca48e3c8b62e26629139b8;
                txinwitness =                 (
                    304402206f5a22fb4125f423d2d6a84662122464cfd2f75c1eeb68a16a5d5d574191ee160220407fa17f60e1843b94b33ee5156db873b270704b83f8b041af03ffb177abcbee01,
                    02cdc5c26ef620915d31e7ed467eb79db58cf18544370bc2c488084d9e15415336
                );
                vout = 1;
            }
        );
        vout =         (
                        {
                n = 0;
                scriptPubKey =                 {
                    addresses =                     (
                        tb1qltge5c988eaqy9960yvepxmlpkplnu3zly8j5z
                    );
                    asm = "0 fad19a60a73e7a0214ba7919909b7f0d83f9f222";
                    hex = 0014fad19a60a73e7a0214ba7919909b7f0d83f9f222;
                    reqSigs = 1;
                    type = "witness_v0_keyhash";
                };
                value = "0.92357674";
            }
        );
        vsize = 516;
        weight = 2063;
    }

I then cross check the conf_target with a fresh estimatesmartfee command to deduce what the s/b fee rate ought to be, comparing it to what it actually is and get a huge disparity:

actual s/b: 1.0
target s/b: 147.381

Why would estimatesmartfee work but conf_target arg would not?

I would have assumed that you would only get an issue like this if estimatesmartfee did not have enough data to function as can happen